Russia shifts attack direction, ISW warns of new threat
- Open Media Ukraine
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
he redeployment of units from the Donetsk region to the borders of the Sumy region may indicate a new military strategy by the Russian army, according to the report by the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW). RBC-Ukraine reports.
ISW notes that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s call for a buffer zone along the Russia-Ukraine border, alongside continued efforts to seize full control of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, ignores Russia’s current limitations and reflects his intent to expand territorial claims.
The report references Ukrainian military analyst Kostiantyn Mashovets, who said on May 26 that Russia’s command had recently redeployed units of the 752nd Motor Rifle Regiment (3rd Motor Rifle Division, 20th Combined Arms Army, Moscow Military District) and the 200th Motor Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps, Leningrad Military District) to reinforce Russian forces advancing in northern Sumy region.
According to Mashovets, the 200th Brigade is operating near the Ukrainian village of Volodymyrivka (north of the city of Sumy) and the Russian village of Gordeevka, directly to its north. The 752nd Regiment continues to operate near Borova (Kharkiv region) and Lyman (Donetsk region), where it has been active since at least mid-2024.
Troop movements from Donbas
ISW previously tracked the 200th Brigade’s involvement in fighting along the Bakhmut–Chasiv Yar axis - one of Russia’s key offensive priorities. As of May 6, Russian forces were still reported in Chasiv Yar, but ISW says there is not yet independent confirmation of the unit’s presence in northern Sumy. The institute is monitoring developments.
Earlier reports highlighted that Russian forces have failed to break Ukrainian defenses west and southwest of Chasiv Yar, undermining their ability to launch large-scale offensives toward Kostiantynivka and the broader defense line.
ISW suggests that pulling units from Chasiv Yar may indicate a delay in Russia’s plans to push toward Kostiantynivka. The move also reflects ISW’s broader assessment: Russia currently lacks sufficient operational reserves to conduct simultaneous offensives in multiple areas.
"The Russian military command's decision to redeploy units away from this effort suggests that the Russian military may try to simultaneously continue advances in Donetsk Oblast and establish a buffer zone in northern Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv oblasts, however," the report says. Commanders may believe that Russian forces have a higher chance of achieving notable gains in northern Sumy than near Chasiv Yar.
ISW had earlier assessed that Putin likely aims to use such buffer zones in northern Sumy and Kharkiv regions to justify expanding territorial claims beyond the Kremlin’s usual targets of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
Kremlin's buffer zone plans Recently, Vladimir Putin held a meeting with Russian officials where he floated the idea of creating a buffer zone at least 25 kilometers wide in the northern part of the Sumy region.
Although he did not provide specific details, Russian state propaganda outlets speculated that the plan pertains to Russia’s border regions - Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod - which border Ukraine’s Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions, respectively.
Later, State Duma deputy Viktor Sobolev, a member of the defense committee, claimed that this buffer zone should allegedly include parts of at least six Ukrainian regions.
On May 25, Russian Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev stated that Putin was ostensibly referring to the capture of virtually all of Ukraine’s territory.
Meanwhile, Russian forces have already seized four border villages northeast of the city of Sumy.
Additionally, in May 2024, Putin ordered the creation of a buffer zone in the north of the Kharkiv region.
Нагадаємо: У Києві після російської атаки госпіталізували троє людей: Кличко розповів про стан постраждалих.
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